2nd Debate: No Game Changer, Gain for "That one"
Tues nights 2nd Presidential debate is over. Preliminary polls have Obama in the lead by a fairly significant margin as having won. McCain needed a big win here and a real game changing moment, if he intends to win this election - he didn't get it.
From the outset, McCain looked on edge and kind of stodgy. His responses, in word, tone & inflection, and body language, betrayed a man that is feeling the pressure of his sinking poll numbers. He came across as kind of aggressive towards the audience members at times, and I don't think that's a good thing for him. His pacing back and forth, getting right up uncomfortably close to the audience members that asked the questions, and his brusque demeanor probably didn't win him many voters in the "likable" category, and his responses while measured failed to deliver what he needed most: some kind of game changing moment in his favor that gets his campaign energized again and back into the race. In fact the one potential game changer might end up working against him. At one point he referred to Obama as "that one" while pointing his thumb at him, and there is already a shit storm flying about the web about how disrespectful that was. Now, if you're an Obama fan, you'll be offended, if you're a McCain backer, you probably thought it was funny - so what really matters is how the independent and undecided middle took it - that verdict is still out, but traditionally they don't like it when candidates mock each other. I personally don't think McCain meant it to be offensive, I think he was just trying to add a little humor into his response - but it's going to be circulated in video clips around the web, and it might do him more harm than good.
Obama on the other hand, looked relaxed and at ease. It's of course easier to appear that way when your poll numbers are surging and you're feeling like you already have the confidence of the people behind you - but his body language showed someone who felt very much in control of the situation - and that's going to be reassuring to voters, especially those concerned with his readiness for the job. Obama's job was even less difficult for the night though than for McCain - hold on to the lead and don't make any major screw ups. On those objectives he delivered. He didn't have anything ground breaking to reveal, no huge changes in policy, or any kind surprises, but he kept hammering home his talking points and stayed on message. The one thing I was disappointed with in him was his flagrant disregard of the Debate rules in terms of time limit. McCain ran over his allotted time more than a few times to be sure, but Obama ran over on almost every response, and ran over a lot longer than McCain did too. For undecided voters, that kind of thing tends to be a turn off, and I wish he'd been more careful about it.
As mentioned, preliminary polling data is showing a large percentage of responses saying Obama won (~54% Obama / ~30% McCain). That kind of perception is going to work against McCain, and his campaign is already running at a deficit in the poll numbers these days. It's really getting late in the political season now. Large numbers of voters are trending towards Obama particularly in the battleground States. The Electoral College numbers have Obama at fairly close to having wrapped up a win: Obama is sitting pretty comfortably on 264 electoral votes right now, needing only 6 more to guarantee a win. All he needs to do is take one battleground State outside of Nevada, and polls have been trending in his direction for the past few weeks putting him in the lead in quite a few of them. By comparison, McCain needs to win *every* *single* State that's up in the air right now, and shore up his eroding support in States that are tradionally red, but trending towards toss-up category now. He's got a long, (not impossible, but certainly improbably) task in front of him in the next grueling few weeks to turn this thing around and salvage a win. I don't think he's going to be able to do it though. Voter expectations are already starting to settle in on Obama as the eventual winner, and that often has a chilling effect on the perceived eventual losers support. Voters who think they're candidate doesn't stand a chance of winning often skip voting altogether, eroding already meager support in a positive feedback loop that is nothing but negative for the candidate.
Anyway, I think Obama is in good shape, and that makes me happy. After last night's performance, I think we're going to continue to see the poll numbers shift out even farther to Obama's favor.
From the outset, McCain looked on edge and kind of stodgy. His responses, in word, tone & inflection, and body language, betrayed a man that is feeling the pressure of his sinking poll numbers. He came across as kind of aggressive towards the audience members at times, and I don't think that's a good thing for him. His pacing back and forth, getting right up uncomfortably close to the audience members that asked the questions, and his brusque demeanor probably didn't win him many voters in the "likable" category, and his responses while measured failed to deliver what he needed most: some kind of game changing moment in his favor that gets his campaign energized again and back into the race. In fact the one potential game changer might end up working against him. At one point he referred to Obama as "that one" while pointing his thumb at him, and there is already a shit storm flying about the web about how disrespectful that was. Now, if you're an Obama fan, you'll be offended, if you're a McCain backer, you probably thought it was funny - so what really matters is how the independent and undecided middle took it - that verdict is still out, but traditionally they don't like it when candidates mock each other. I personally don't think McCain meant it to be offensive, I think he was just trying to add a little humor into his response - but it's going to be circulated in video clips around the web, and it might do him more harm than good.
Obama on the other hand, looked relaxed and at ease. It's of course easier to appear that way when your poll numbers are surging and you're feeling like you already have the confidence of the people behind you - but his body language showed someone who felt very much in control of the situation - and that's going to be reassuring to voters, especially those concerned with his readiness for the job. Obama's job was even less difficult for the night though than for McCain - hold on to the lead and don't make any major screw ups. On those objectives he delivered. He didn't have anything ground breaking to reveal, no huge changes in policy, or any kind surprises, but he kept hammering home his talking points and stayed on message. The one thing I was disappointed with in him was his flagrant disregard of the Debate rules in terms of time limit. McCain ran over his allotted time more than a few times to be sure, but Obama ran over on almost every response, and ran over a lot longer than McCain did too. For undecided voters, that kind of thing tends to be a turn off, and I wish he'd been more careful about it.
As mentioned, preliminary polling data is showing a large percentage of responses saying Obama won (~54% Obama / ~30% McCain). That kind of perception is going to work against McCain, and his campaign is already running at a deficit in the poll numbers these days. It's really getting late in the political season now. Large numbers of voters are trending towards Obama particularly in the battleground States. The Electoral College numbers have Obama at fairly close to having wrapped up a win: Obama is sitting pretty comfortably on 264 electoral votes right now, needing only 6 more to guarantee a win. All he needs to do is take one battleground State outside of Nevada, and polls have been trending in his direction for the past few weeks putting him in the lead in quite a few of them. By comparison, McCain needs to win *every* *single* State that's up in the air right now, and shore up his eroding support in States that are tradionally red, but trending towards toss-up category now. He's got a long, (not impossible, but certainly improbably) task in front of him in the next grueling few weeks to turn this thing around and salvage a win. I don't think he's going to be able to do it though. Voter expectations are already starting to settle in on Obama as the eventual winner, and that often has a chilling effect on the perceived eventual losers support. Voters who think they're candidate doesn't stand a chance of winning often skip voting altogether, eroding already meager support in a positive feedback loop that is nothing but negative for the candidate.
Anyway, I think Obama is in good shape, and that makes me happy. After last night's performance, I think we're going to continue to see the poll numbers shift out even farther to Obama's favor.
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